Marcio Cruz vs Yorgan De Castro
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
8-3-0Record12-7-0
Light HeavyweightDivisionHeavyweight
6'4"Height6'1"
TBDReach74"
205 lbsWeight265 lbs
Gracie FusionTeamRegiment Training Center
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+16→ 1598
If they lose-16→ 1566
If they win+16→ 1598
If they lose-16→ 1566
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1595 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1544 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Marcio CruzYorgan De Castro
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Marcio Cruz53%
Yorgan De Castro 47%Elo baseline: 50%
The Combat Edge model makes Marcio Cruz a 53% favorite over Yorgan De Castro in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (50%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1582 vs 1582), separated by just 0 points.
Marcio Cruz finishes 86% of wins inside the distance, Yorgan De Castro 83%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.