Combat Edge Intelligence

Marcirley Alves vs Naoki Inoue

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

15-5-0Record21-5-0
BantamweightDivisionBantamweight
5'4"Height5'8"
66"Reach71"
135 lbsWeight134 lbs
Chute Boxe Joao EmilioTeamKill Cliff FC

What's at stake

Naoki Inoue is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +11 while a loss costs more — Marcirley Alves carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Marcirley AlvesNow 1668
If they win+18→ 1686
If they lose-14→ 1654
Naoki InoueNow 1710
If they win+11→ 1721
If they lose-13→ 1697

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1610 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1572 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

TBD
Sig. strikes / min
3.67
TBD
Strike accuracy
35%
TBD
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
3.37
TBD
Strike defense
61%
TBD
Takedown avg.
0
TBD
Takedown accuracy
0%
TBD
Takedown defense
60%
TBD
Submission avg.
2.50

Trajectory

Marcirley AlvesNaoki Inoue
16501700202420252026

Win method breakdown

10 (67%)
KO/TKO
2 (10%)
0 (0%)
Submission
9 (43%)
5 (33%)
Decision
10 (48%)

Combat Edge model read

The Combat Edge model rates this a near coin-flip, splitting Marcirley Alves and Naoki Inoue within a point of even.

Naoki Inoue holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1710 to 1668, a 42-point edge.

Marcirley Alves finishes 67% of wins inside the distance, Naoki Inoue 52%.

Naoki Inoue carries a 5-inch reach advantage.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.