Marcirley Alves vs Naoki Inoue
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
15-6-0Record21-5-0
BantamweightDivisionBantamweight
5'4"Height5'8"
66"Reach71"
135 lbsWeight134 lbs
Chute Boxe Joao Emilio· 1698 avg Elo · 4 ratedTeamKill Cliff FC
What's at stake
Naoki Inoue is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +10 while a loss costs more — Marcirley Alves carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+19→ 1672
If they lose-13→ 1640
If they win+10→ 1733
If they lose-14→ 1709
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1633 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1608 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Marcirley AlvesNaoki Inoue
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Naoki Inoue67%
Marcirley Alves 33%Elo baseline: 60%
The Combat Edge model makes Naoki Inoue a 67% favorite over Marcirley Alves in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (60%).
Naoki Inoue holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1723 to 1653, a 70-point edge.
Marcirley Alves enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Marcirley Alves finishes 67% of wins inside the distance, Naoki Inoue 52%.
Naoki Inoue carries a 5-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.