Marcirley Alves vs Nkosi Ndebele
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
15-6-0Record14-3-0
BantamweightDivisionBantamweight
5'4"Height5'10"
66"Reach75"
135 lbsWeight135 lbs
Chute Boxe Joao Emilio· 1698 avg Elo · 4 ratedTeamNova MMA Academy
What's at stake
Nkosi Ndebele is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +14 while a loss costs more — Marcirley Alves carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+18→ 1671
If they lose-14→ 1639
If they win+14→ 1721
If they lose-18→ 1689
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1633 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1594 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Marcirley AlvesNkosi Ndebele
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Nkosi Ndebele80%
Marcirley Alves 20%Elo baseline: 58%
The Combat Edge model makes Nkosi Ndebele a 80% favorite over Marcirley Alves in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (58%).
Nkosi Ndebele holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1707 to 1653, a 54-point edge.
Marcirley Alves enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Nkosi Ndebele enters on a 6-fight win streak.
Marcirley Alves finishes 67% of wins inside the distance, Nkosi Ndebele 50%.
Nkosi Ndebele carries a 9-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.