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Combat Edge Intelligence

Marcirley Alves vs Nkosi Ndebele

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Official bout pages

New comparison

This page compares both fighters across their careers. Event-specific previews, results, round stats, and bout facts live on the separate official Fight page for each meeting.

Tale of the tape

15-6-0Record14-3-0
BantamweightDivisionBantamweight
5'4"Height5'10"
66"Reach75"
135 lbsWeight135 lbs
Chute Boxe Joao Emilio· 1704 avg Elo · 4 ratedTeamNova MMA Academy

What's at stake

Nkosi Ndebele is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +14 while a loss costs more — Marcirley Alves carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Marcirley AlvesNow 1659
If they win+18→ 1677
If they lose-14→ 1645
Nkosi NdebeleNow 1707
If they win+14→ 1721
If they lose-18→ 1689

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1648 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1592 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.

Not available
Sig. strikes / min
Not available
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Strike accuracy
Not available
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Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
Not available
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Strike defense
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Takedown avg.
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Takedown accuracy
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Takedown defense
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Submission avg.
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Trajectory

Marcirley AlvesNkosi Ndebele
16501700202420252026

Win method breakdown

10 (67%)
KO/TKO
7 (50%)
0 (0%)
Submission
0 (0%)
5 (33%)
Decision
7 (50%)

Combat Edge model read

Nkosi Ndebele58%
Marcirley Alves 42%Elo baseline: 57%

The Combat Edge model makes Nkosi Ndebele a 58% favorite over Marcirley Alves in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (57%).

Nkosi Ndebele holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1707 to 1659, a 48-point edge.

Marcirley Alves enters on a 2-fight loss streak.

Nkosi Ndebele enters on a 6-fight win streak.

Marcirley Alves finishes 67% of wins inside the distance, Nkosi Ndebele 50%.

Nkosi Ndebele carries a 9-inch reach advantage.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.