Combat Edge Intelligence

Marcos Vinicius vs Yorgan De Castro

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

3-4-1Record12-7-0
HeavyweightDivisionHeavyweight
TBDHeight6'1"
TBDReach74"
225 lbsWeight265 lbs
Absolute CombatTeamRegiment Training Center

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Marcos ViniciusNow 1581
If they win+16→ 1597
If they lose-16→ 1565
Yorgan De CastroNow 1582
If they win+16→ 1598
If they lose-16→ 1566

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1518 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1544 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

1.93
Sig. strikes / min
2.46
49%
Strike accuracy
44%
2.91
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
3.85
47%
Strike defense
54%
0
Takedown avg.
0
TBD
Takedown accuracy
0%
25%
Takedown defense
78%
0.49
Submission avg.
0

Trajectory

Marcos ViniciusYorgan De Castro
1600165020212022202320242025

Win method breakdown

1 (50%)
KO/TKO
9 (75%)
0 (0%)
Submission
1 (8%)
1 (50%)
Decision
2 (17%)

Combat Edge model read

Marcos Vinicius60%
Yorgan De Castro 40%Elo baseline: 50%

The Combat Edge model makes Marcos Vinicius a 60% favorite over Yorgan De Castro in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Yorgan De Castro's way (50%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1581 vs 1582), separated by just 1 points.

Marcos Vinicius enters on a 4-fight loss streak.

Yorgan De Castro 83%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.