Combat Edge Intelligence

Marcos Galvao vs Ryo Hirayama

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

18-12-1Record4-1-0
BantamweightDivisionBantamweight
5'7"Height5'6"
TBDReach-
135 lbsWeight135 lbs
Marcos Galvao MMATeamX-Treme Ebina

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Marcos GalvaoNow 1571
If they win+12→ 1583
If they lose-12→ 1559
Ryo HirayamaNow 1570
If they win+24→ 1594
If they lose-24→ 1546

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1568 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1515 · 5 fights

Tracked stat edges

1.75
Sig. strikes / min
TBD
27%
Strike accuracy
TBD
6.85
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
TBD
62%
Strike defense
TBD
2.01
Takedown avg.
TBD
17%
Takedown accuracy
TBD
89%
Takedown defense
TBD
0
Submission avg.
TBD

Trajectory

Marcos GalvaoRyo Hirayama
155016001650201720182019202020212022202320242025

Win method breakdown

4 (22%)
KO/TKO
2 (50%)
1 (6%)
Submission
2 (50%)
13 (72%)
Decision
0 (0%)

Combat Edge model read

Ryo Hirayama70%
Marcos Galvao 30%Elo baseline: 50%

The Combat Edge model makes Ryo Hirayama a 70% favorite over Marcos Galvao in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Marcos Galvao's way (50%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1571 vs 1570), separated by just 1 points.

Marcos Galvao enters on a 5-fight loss streak.

Marcos Galvao finishes 28% of wins inside the distance, Ryo Hirayama 100%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.