Marcus Aurelio vs Tyson Griffin
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
22-10-0Record17-8-0
WelterweightDivisionLightweight
5'10"Height5'6"
TBDReachTBD
170 lbsWeight155 lbs
Elite Mixed FightersTeamAmerican Kickboxing Academy
What's at stake
Marcus Aurelio is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +10 while a loss costs more — Tyson Griffin carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+10→ 1659
If they lose-14→ 1635
If they win+19→ 1603
If they lose-13→ 1571
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1565 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1657 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Marcus AurelioTyson Griffin
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Marcus Aurelio57%
Tyson Griffin 43%Elo baseline: 59%
The Combat Edge model makes Marcus Aurelio a 57% favorite over Tyson Griffin in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (59%).
Marcus Aurelio holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1649 to 1584, a 65-point edge.
Marcus Aurelio finishes 86% of wins inside the distance, Tyson Griffin 53%.
Marcus Aurelio and Tyson Griffin share 1 common opponent: Evan Dunham.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.