Combat Edge Intelligence

Marcus Buchecha vs Ricco Rodriguez

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

5-3-1Record54-27-0
HeavyweightDivisionHeavyweight
6'3"Height6'4"
80"ReachTBD
254 lbsWeight225 lbs
American Top TeamTeamAmerican Fight Club

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Marcus BuchechaNow 1593
If they win+24→ 1617
If they lose-24→ 1569
Ricco RodriguezNow 1591
If they win+12→ 1603
If they lose-12→ 1579

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1625 · 9 fightsPre-fight Elo1598 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

1.70
Sig. strikes / min
1.85
49%
Strike accuracy
51%
2.17
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
1.15
51%
Strike defense
61%
2
Takedown avg.
2.30
17%
Takedown accuracy
39%
0%
Takedown defense
41%
0
Submission avg.
0.97

Trajectory

Marcus BuchechaRicco Rodriguez
16002017201820192020202120222023202420252026

Win method breakdown

1 (20%)
KO/TKO
17 (31%)
4 (80%)
Submission
25 (46%)
0 (0%)
Decision
12 (22%)

Combat Edge model read

Marcus Buchecha70%
Ricco Rodriguez 30%Elo baseline: 50%

The Combat Edge model makes Marcus Buchecha a 70% favorite over Ricco Rodriguez in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (50%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1593 vs 1591), separated by just 2 points.

Ricco Rodriguez enters on a 2-fight loss streak.

Marcus Buchecha finishes 100% of wins inside the distance, Ricco Rodriguez 78%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.