Combat Edge Intelligence

Marcus Davis vs Paul Kelly

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Marcus Davis

“The Irish Hand Grenade”

23-11-0WelterweightPFC

Elo1655Good

Paul Kelly

“Tellys”

15-5-0WelterweightPMMA

Elo1534Average

Tale of the tape

23-11-0Record15-5-0

WelterweightDivisionWelterweight

5'8"Height5'9"

TBDReachTBD

170 lbsWeight169 lbs

Team IrishTeamTeam Kaobon

What's at stake

Marcus Davis is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +8 while a loss costs more — Paul Kelly carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Marcus DavisNow 1655

If they win+8→ 1663

If they lose-16→ 1639

Paul KellyNow 1534

If they win+21→ 1555

If they lose-11→ 1523

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1517 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1594 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

2.72

Sig. strikes / min

3.22

40%

Strike accuracy

38%

2.79

Strikes absorbed / minLower is better

2.61

66%

Strike defense

60%

1.60

Takedown avg.

1.34

48%

Takedown accuracy

60%

48%

Takedown defense

31%

1.37

Submission avg.

1.49

Elo Trajectory

Marcus DavisPaul Kelly

Win method breakdown

6 (26%)

KO/TKO

8 (53%)

10 (43%)

Submission

4 (27%)

7 (30%)

Decision

3 (20%)

Combat Edge model read

The Combat Edge model rates this a near coin-flip, splitting Marcus Davis and Paul Kelly within a point of even.

Marcus Davis holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1655 to 1534, a 121-point edge.

Paul Kelly enters on a 2-fight loss streak.

Marcus Davis finishes 70% of wins inside the distance, Paul Kelly 80%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.