Combat Edge Intelligence

Marcus McGhee vs Timur Valiev

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

11-2-0Record19-4-0
BantamweightDivisionFeatherweight
5'8"Height5'6"
69"Reach67"
135 lbsWeight138 lbs
MMA LabTeamDagFighter· 1713 avg Elo · 5 rated

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Marcus McGheeNow 1704
If they win+16→ 1720
If they lose-16→ 1688
Timur ValievNow 1708
If they win+16→ 1724
If they lose-16→ 1692

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1590 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1564 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

5.50
Sig. strikes / min
5.19
45%
Strike accuracy
53%
3.64
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
3.33
58%
Strike defense
45%
0.31
Takedown avg.
1.73
14%
Takedown accuracy
40%
90%
Takedown defense
56%
0.31
Submission avg.
0.29

Trajectory

Marcus McGheeTimur Valiev
165017002023202420252026

Win method breakdown

8 (73%)
KO/TKO
5 (26%)
1 (9%)
Submission
2 (11%)
2 (18%)
Decision
12 (63%)

Combat Edge model read

Marcus McGhee70%
Timur Valiev 30%Elo baseline: 49%

The Combat Edge model makes Marcus McGhee a 70% favorite over Timur Valiev in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Timur Valiev's way (49%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1704 vs 1708), separated by just 4 points.

Marcus McGhee finishes 82% of wins inside the distance, Timur Valiev 37%.

Marcus McGhee carries a 2-inch reach advantage.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.