Mario Bautista vs Ricky Simón
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
18-3-0Record22-8-1
BantamweightDivisionBantamweight
5'9"Height5'6"
69"Reach69"
135 lbsWeight135 lbs
MMA LabTeamAmerican Top Team Portland· 1662 avg Elo · 3 rated
What's at stake
Mario Bautista is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +13 while a loss costs more — Ricky Simón carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+13→ 1804
If they lose-19→ 1772
If they win+14→ 1735
If they lose-10→ 1711
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1728 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1719 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Mario BautistaRicky Simón
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Mario Bautista67%
Ricky Simón 33%Elo baseline: 60%
The Combat Edge model makes Mario Bautista a 67% favorite over Ricky Simón in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (60%).
Mario Bautista holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1791 to 1721, a 70-point edge.
Mario Bautista enters on a 2-fight win streak.
Mario Bautista finishes 56% of wins inside the distance, Ricky Simón 50%.
Mario Bautista and Ricky Simón share 1 common opponent: Vinicius Oliveira.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.