Combat Edge Intelligence

Mario Bautista vs Sean O'Malley

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

18-3-0Record20-3-0
BantamweightDivisionBantamweight
5'9"Height5'11"
69"Reach72″
135 lbsWeight135 lbs
MMA LabTeamMMA Lab

What's at stake

Sean O'Malley is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +15 while a loss costs more — Mario Bautista carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Mario BautistaNow 1790
If they win+17→ 1807
If they lose-15→ 1775
Sean O'MalleyNow 1815
If they win+15→ 1830
If they lose-17→ 1798

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1728 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1750 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

5.30
Sig. strikes / min
6.05
49%
Strike accuracy
61%
3.98
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
3.40
55%
Strike defense
60%
1.91
Takedown avg.
0.24
38%
Takedown accuracy
43%
56%
Takedown defense
61%
0.85
Submission avg.
0.24

Trajectory

Mario BautistaSean O'Malley
17501800202420252026

Win method breakdown

3 (17%)
KO/TKO
13 (65%)
7 (39%)
Submission
1 (5%)
8 (44%)
Decision
6 (30%)

Combat Edge model read

The Combat Edge model rates this a near coin-flip, splitting Mario Bautista and Sean O'Malley within a point of even.

Sean O'Malley holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1815 to 1790, a 25-point edge.

Mario Bautista enters on a 2-fight win streak.

Sean O'Malley enters on a 2-fight win streak.

Mario Bautista finishes 56% of wins inside the distance, Sean O'Malley 70%.

Sean O'Malley carries a 3-inch reach advantage.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.