Combat Edge Intelligence

Mario Bautista vs Trevin Jones

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

18-3-0Record14-12-0
BantamweightDivisionBantamweight
5'9"Height5'6"
69"Reach70"
135 lbsWeight135 lbs
MMA LabTeamVida Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu

What's at stake

Mario Bautista is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +7 while a loss costs more — Trevin Jones carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Mario BautistaNow 1790
If they win+7→ 1797
If they lose-25→ 1765
Trevin JonesNow 1554
If they win+25→ 1579
If they lose-7→ 1547

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1727 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1619 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

5.30
Sig. strikes / min
2.13
49%
Strike accuracy
37%
3.98
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
4.29
55%
Strike defense
40%
1.91
Takedown avg.
0.62
38%
Takedown accuracy
15%
56%
Takedown defense
60%
0.85
Submission avg.
0.21

Trajectory

Mario BautistaTrevin Jones
16001700180020222023202420252026

Win method breakdown

3 (17%)
KO/TKO
3 (21%)
7 (39%)
Submission
4 (29%)
8 (44%)
Decision
7 (50%)

Combat Edge model read

Mario Bautista92%
Trevin Jones 8%Elo baseline: 80%

The Combat Edge model makes Mario Bautista a 92% favorite over Trevin Jones in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (80%).

Mario Bautista holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1790 to 1554, a 236-point edge.

Mario Bautista enters on a 2-fight win streak.

Trevin Jones enters on a 2-fight loss streak.

Mario Bautista finishes 56% of wins inside the distance, Trevin Jones 50%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.