Mario Bautista vs Umar Nurmagomedov
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
18-3-0Record20-1-0
BantamweightDivisionBantamweight
5'9"Height5'8"
69"Reach69"
135 lbsWeight135 lbs
MMA LabTeamEagles MMA· 1817 avg Elo · 5 rated
What's at stake
Umar Nurmagomedov is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +15 while a loss costs more — Mario Bautista carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+17→ 1807
If they lose-15→ 1775
If they win+15→ 1837
If they lose-17→ 1805
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1728 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1718 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Mario BautistaUmar Nurmagomedov
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Umar Nurmagomedov53%
Mario Bautista 47%Elo baseline: 55%
The Combat Edge model makes Umar Nurmagomedov a 53% favorite over Mario Bautista in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (55%).
Umar Nurmagomedov holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1822 to 1790, a 32-point edge.
Mario Bautista enters on a 2-fight win streak.
Umar Nurmagomedov enters on a 2-fight win streak.
Mario Bautista finishes 56% of wins inside the distance, Umar Nurmagomedov 45%.
Mario Bautista and Umar Nurmagomedov share 2 common opponents: Cory Sandhagen and Brian Kelleher.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.