Mario Bautista vs Vinicius Oliveira
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
18-3-0Record24-4-0
BantamweightDivisionBantamweight
5'9"Height5'9"
69"Reach70"
135 lbsWeight135 lbs
MMA LabTeamSombra Team
What's at stake
Mario Bautista is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +14 while a loss costs more — Vinicius Oliveira carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+14→ 1804
If they lose-18→ 1772
If they win+18→ 1761
If they lose-14→ 1729
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1728 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1658 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Mario BautistaVinicius Oliveira
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Mario Bautista60%
Vinicius Oliveira 40%Elo baseline: 57%
The Combat Edge model makes Mario Bautista a 60% favorite over Vinicius Oliveira in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (57%).
Mario Bautista holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1790 to 1743, a 47-point edge.
Mario Bautista enters on a 2-fight win streak.
Mario Bautista finishes 56% of wins inside the distance, Vinicius Oliveira 79%.
Mario Bautista and Vinicius Oliveira share 1 common opponent: Ricky Simón.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.