Marion Reneau vs Miesha Tate
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
9-8-1Record20-10-0
BantamweightDivisionBantamweight
5'6"Height5'6"
TBDReach65"
135 lbsWeight136 lbs
Elite TeamTeamXtreme Couture
What's at stake
Miesha Tate is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +10 while a loss costs more — Marion Reneau carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+19→ 1588
If they lose-13→ 1556
If they win+10→ 1650
If they lose-14→ 1626
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1611 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1639 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Marion ReneauMiesha Tate
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Miesha Tate72%
Marion Reneau 28%Elo baseline: 60%
The Combat Edge model makes Miesha Tate a 72% favorite over Marion Reneau in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (60%).
Miesha Tate holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1640 to 1569, a 71-point edge.
Marion Reneau enters on a 5-fight loss streak.
Marion Reneau finishes 89% of wins inside the distance, Miesha Tate 60%.
Marion Reneau and Miesha Tate share 3 common opponents: Raquel Pennington, Yana Santos and Sara McMann.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.