Marion Reneau vs Sara McMann
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
9-8-1Record14-7-0
BantamweightDivisionFeatherweight
5'6"Height5'5"
TBDReach66"
135 lbsWeight145 lbs
Elite TeamTeamTeam Alpha Male
What's at stake
Sara McMann is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +14 while a loss costs more — Marion Reneau carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+18→ 1587
If they lose-14→ 1555
If they win+14→ 1632
If they lose-18→ 1600
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1611 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1609 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Marion ReneauSara McMann
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Sara McMann72%
Marion Reneau 28%Elo baseline: 57%
The Combat Edge model makes Sara McMann a 72% favorite over Marion Reneau in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (57%).
Sara McMann holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1618 to 1569, a 49-point edge.
Marion Reneau enters on a 5-fight loss streak.
Marion Reneau finishes 89% of wins inside the distance, Sara McMann 43%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.