Marion Reneau vs Yana Santos
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
9-8-1Record17-8-0
BantamweightDivisionFeatherweight
5'6"Height5'8"
TBDReach68"
135 lbsWeight145 lbs
Elite TeamTeamAmerican Top Team
What's at stake
Yana Santos is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +12 while a loss costs more — Marion Reneau carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+20→ 1589
If they lose-12→ 1557
If they win+12→ 1673
If they lose-20→ 1641
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1611 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1637 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Marion ReneauYana Santos
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Yana Santos80%
Marion Reneau 20%Elo baseline: 63%
The Combat Edge model makes Yana Santos a 80% favorite over Marion Reneau in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (63%).
Yana Santos holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1661 to 1569, a 92-point edge.
Marion Reneau enters on a 5-fight loss streak.
Yana Santos enters on a 3-fight win streak.
Marion Reneau finishes 89% of wins inside the distance, Yana Santos 47%.
Marion Reneau and Yana Santos share 2 common opponents: Miesha Tate and Macy Chiasson.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.