Mariya Agapova vs Shana Dobson
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
10-5-0Record4-5-0
FlyweightDivisionFlyweight
5'6"Height5'6"
68"ReachTBD
125 lbsWeight125 lbs
MMA Science AcademyTeamElevation Fight Team
What's at stake
Mariya Agapova is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +11 while a loss costs more — Shana Dobson carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+11→ 1624
If they lose-21→ 1592
If they win+31→ 1537
If they lose-17→ 1489
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1604 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1559 · 9 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Mariya AgapovaShana Dobson
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Mariya Agapova66%
Shana Dobson 34%Elo baseline: 65%
The Combat Edge model makes Mariya Agapova a 66% favorite over Shana Dobson in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (65%).
Mariya Agapova holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1613 to 1506, a 107-point edge.
Mariya Agapova enters on a 3-fight loss streak.
Mariya Agapova finishes 80% of wins inside the distance, Shana Dobson 50%.
Mariya Agapova and Shana Dobson share 1 common opponent: Sabina Mazo.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.