Combat Edge Intelligence

Mark Bocek vs Nik Lentz

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Nik Lentz
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Nik Lentz

“The Carny”

30-12-2LightweightUFC

1670Good

Tale of the tape

12-5-0Record30-12-2
LightweightDivisionLightweight
5'9"Height5'8"
TBDReachTBD
155 lbsWeight155 lbs
Tristar GymTeamKill Cliff FC

What's at stake

Mark Bocek is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +15 while a loss costs more — Nik Lentz carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Mark BocekNow 1697
If they win+15→ 1712
If they lose-17→ 1680
Nik LentzNow 1670
If they win+13→ 1683
If they lose-11→ 1659

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1644 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1697 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

2.34
Sig. strikes / min
3.44
44%
Strike accuracy
48%
2.32
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
3.25
61%
Strike defense
50%
3.65
Takedown avg.
3.30
37%
Takedown accuracy
33%
31%
Takedown defense
44%
1.32
Submission avg.
1.24

Trajectory

Mark BocekNik Lentz
165017002012201320142015201620172018201920202021

Win method breakdown

1 (8%)
KO/TKO
11 (37%)
7 (58%)
Submission
8 (27%)
4 (33%)
Decision
11 (37%)

Combat Edge model read

Mark Bocek57%
Nik Lentz 43%Elo baseline: 54%

The Combat Edge model makes Mark Bocek a 57% favorite over Nik Lentz in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (54%).

Mark Bocek holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1697 to 1670, a 27-point edge.

Nik Lentz enters on a 3-fight loss streak.

Mark Bocek finishes 67% of wins inside the distance, Nik Lentz 63%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.