Mark Bocek vs Nik Lentz
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
12-5-0Record30-12-2
LightweightDivisionLightweight
5'9"Height5'8"
TBDReachTBD
155 lbsWeight155 lbs
Tristar GymTeamKill Cliff FC
What's at stake
Mark Bocek is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +15 while a loss costs more — Nik Lentz carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+15→ 1712
If they lose-17→ 1680
If they win+13→ 1679
If they lose-11→ 1655
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1643 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1698 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Mark BocekNik Lentz
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Nik Lentz56%
Mark Bocek 44%Elo baseline: 46%
The Combat Edge model makes Nik Lentz a 56% favorite over Mark Bocek in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Mark Bocek's way (46%).
Mark Bocek holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1697 to 1666, a 31-point edge.
Nik Lentz enters on a 3-fight loss streak.
Mark Bocek finishes 67% of wins inside the distance, Nik Lentz 63%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.