Combat Edge Intelligence

Mark Bocek vs Rafael dos Anjos

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

12-5-0Record32-17-0
LightweightDivisionLightweight
5'9"Height5'8"
TBDReach70"
155 lbsWeight155 lbs
Tristar GymTeamRDA Academy

What's at stake

Rafael dos Anjos is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +11 while a loss costs more — Mark Bocek carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Mark BocekNow 1697
If they win+17→ 1714
If they lose-15→ 1682
Rafael dos AnjosNow 1713
If they win+11→ 1724
If they lose-13→ 1700

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1644 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1737 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

2.34
Sig. strikes / min
3.48
44%
Strike accuracy
47%
2.32
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
3.23
61%
Strike defense
60%
3.65
Takedown avg.
1.95
37%
Takedown accuracy
36%
31%
Takedown defense
55%
1.32
Submission avg.
0.57

Trajectory

Mark BocekRafael dos Anjos
170017502012201320142015201620172018201920202021202220232024

Win method breakdown

1 (8%)
KO/TKO
5 (16%)
7 (58%)
Submission
11 (34%)
4 (33%)
Decision
16 (50%)

Combat Edge model read

Mark Bocek56%
Rafael dos Anjos 44%Elo baseline: 48%

The Combat Edge model makes Mark Bocek a 56% favorite over Rafael dos Anjos in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Rafael dos Anjos's way (48%).

Rafael dos Anjos holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1713 to 1697, a 16-point edge.

Rafael dos Anjos enters on a 3-fight loss streak.

Mark Bocek finishes 67% of wins inside the distance, Rafael dos Anjos 50%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.