Mark Coleman vs Maurício Rua
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
16-10-0Record27-14-1
Light HeavyweightDivisionLight Heavyweight
6'1"Height6'1"
75"Reach76"
205 lbsWeight205 lbs
Hammer HouseTeamUniversidade da Luta
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+12→ 1706
If they lose-12→ 1682
If they win+12→ 1703
If they lose-12→ 1679
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1727 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1682 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Mark ColemanMaurício Rua
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Mark Coleman67%
Maurício Rua 33%Elo baseline: 50%
The Combat Edge model makes Mark Coleman a 67% favorite over Maurício Rua in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (50%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1694 vs 1691), separated by just 3 points.
Maurício Rua enters on a 3-fight loss streak.
Mark Coleman finishes 75% of wins inside the distance, Maurício Rua 81%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.