Mark Coleman vs Stephan Bonnar
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
16-10-0Record15-9-0
Light HeavyweightDivisionLight Heavyweight
6'1"Height6'3"
75"Reach79"
205 lbsWeight205 lbs
Hammer HouseTeamOne Kick's Gym
What's at stake
Mark Coleman is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +9 while a loss costs more — Stephan Bonnar carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+9→ 1703
If they lose-15→ 1679
If they win+20→ 1633
If they lose-12→ 1601
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1727 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1667 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Mark ColemanStephan Bonnar
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Mark Coleman75%
Stephan Bonnar 25%Elo baseline: 61%
The Combat Edge model makes Mark Coleman a 75% favorite over Stephan Bonnar in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (61%).
Mark Coleman holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1694 to 1613, a 81-point edge.
Stephan Bonnar enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Mark Coleman finishes 75% of wins inside the distance, Stephan Bonnar 67%.
Stephan Bonnar carries a 4-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.