Mark Coleman vs Will Fleury
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
16-10-0Record17-4-0
Light HeavyweightDivisionHeavyweight
6'1"Height6'3"
75"Reach77"
205 lbsWeight238 lbs
Hammer HouseTeamSBG Ireland
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+12→ 1706
If they lose-12→ 1682
If they win+16→ 1708
If they lose-16→ 1676
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1727 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1607 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Mark ColemanWill Fleury
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Will Fleury60%
Mark Coleman 40%Elo baseline: 50%
The Combat Edge model makes Will Fleury a 60% favorite over Mark Coleman in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Mark Coleman's way (50%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1694 vs 1692), separated by just 2 points.
Mark Coleman finishes 75% of wins inside the distance, Will Fleury 53%.
Will Fleury carries a 2-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.