Mark Magsayo vs Nathan Trepagnier
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
29-2-0Record5-6-0
LightweightDivisionWelterweight
5'6"Height5'7"
67.5"Reach67"
130 lbsWeight160 lbs
TBDTeamAcademy of Martial Arts
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+24→ 1524
If they lose-24→ 1476
If they win+16→ 1521
If they lose-16→ 1489
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
TBDPre-fight Elo1529 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Nathan Trepagnier56%
Mark Magsayo 44%Elo baseline: 51%
The Combat Edge model makes Nathan Trepagnier a 56% favorite over Mark Magsayo in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (51%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1500 vs 1505), separated by just 5 points.
Mark Magsayo finishes 66% of wins inside the distance, Nathan Trepagnier 60%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.