Combat Edge Intelligence

Mark Munoz vs Roan Carneiro

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Mark Munoz
us

Mark Munoz

“The Filipino Wrecking Machine”

14-6-0MiddleweightUFC

1639Solid

Tale of the tape

14-6-0Record21-13-0
MiddleweightDivisionWelterweight
6'0"Height5'11"
TBDReach74,0"
185 lbsWeight170 lbs
Reign MMATeamAmerican Top Team Atlanta

What's at stake

Roan Carneiro is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +10 while a loss costs more — Mark Munoz carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Mark MunozNow 1639
If they win+19→ 1658
If they lose-13→ 1626
Roan CarneiroNow 1700
If they win+10→ 1710
If they lose-14→ 1686

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1682 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1635 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

3.12
Sig. strikes / min
1.46
51%
Strike accuracy
47%
2.26
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
1.82
57%
Strike defense
63%
3.17
Takedown avg.
3.05
30%
Takedown accuracy
42%
58%
Takedown defense
83%
0.55
Submission avg.
1.45

Trajectory

Mark MunozRoan Carneiro
165017002013201420152016201720182019

Win method breakdown

7 (50%)
KO/TKO
3 (14%)
0 (0%)
Submission
9 (43%)
7 (50%)
Decision
9 (43%)

Combat Edge model read

Roan Carneiro68%
Mark Munoz 32%Elo baseline: 59%

The Combat Edge model makes Roan Carneiro a 68% favorite over Mark Munoz in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (59%).

Roan Carneiro holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1700 to 1639, a 61-point edge.

Mark Munoz finishes 50% of wins inside the distance, Roan Carneiro 57%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.