Marlon Moraes vs Raphael Assunção
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
23-13-1Record28-10-0
FeatherweightDivisionBantamweight
5'6"Height5'5"
67"Reach66"
145 lbsWeight135 lbs
American Top TeamTeamXtreme Couture
What's at stake
Raphael Assunção is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +10 while a loss costs more — Marlon Moraes carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+14→ 1667
If they lose-10→ 1643
If they win+10→ 1717
If they lose-14→ 1693
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1732 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1700 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Marlon MoraesRaphael Assunção
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Raphael Assunção54%
Marlon Moraes 46%Elo baseline: 58%
The Combat Edge model makes Raphael Assunção a 54% favorite over Marlon Moraes in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (58%).
Raphael Assunção holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1707 to 1653, a 54-point edge.
Marlon Moraes enters on a 8-fight loss streak.
Marlon Moraes finishes 70% of wins inside the distance, Raphael Assunção 50%.
Marlon Moraes and Raphael Assunção share 2 common opponents: Rob Font and Cory Sandhagen.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.