Combat Edge Intelligence

Martin Kampmann vs Paulo Thiago

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

20-7-0Record19-11-0
WelterweightDivisionWelterweight
6'0"Height5'11"
TBDReachTBD
170 lbsWeight170 lbs
Xtreme CoutureTeamX-Gym

What's at stake

Martin Kampmann is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +14 while a loss costs more — Paulo Thiago carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Martin KampmannNow 1634
If they win+14→ 1648
If they lose-18→ 1616
Paulo ThiagoNow 1595
If they win+13→ 1608
If they lose-11→ 1584

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1717 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1579 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

3.22
Sig. strikes / min
1.71
42%
Strike accuracy
39%
3.28
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
1.99
62%
Strike defense
64%
1.86
Takedown avg.
1.42
41%
Takedown accuracy
32%
78%
Takedown defense
64%
2.05
Submission avg.
1.21

Trajectory

Martin KampmannPaulo Thiago
16001650201120122013201420152016201720182019

Win method breakdown

9 (47%)
KO/TKO
2 (11%)
6 (32%)
Submission
10 (53%)
4 (21%)
Decision
7 (37%)

Combat Edge model read

Martin Kampmann70%
Paulo Thiago 30%Elo baseline: 56%

The Combat Edge model makes Martin Kampmann a 70% favorite over Paulo Thiago in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (56%).

Martin Kampmann holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1634 to 1595, a 39-point edge.

Martin Kampmann enters on a 2-fight loss streak.

Martin Kampmann finishes 79% of wins inside the distance, Paulo Thiago 63%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.