Martin Sano vs Matthew Semelsberger
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
Compare any two fighters →
Tale of the tape
4-3-1Record11-8-0
WelterweightDivisionWelterweight
5'11"Height6'1"
75"Reach75"
170 lbsWeight170 lbs
Nick Diaz AcademyTeamClinch Academy
What's at stake
Matthew Semelsberger is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +11 while a loss costs more — Martin Sano carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+32→ 1523
If they lose-16→ 1475
If they win+11→ 1619
If they lose-21→ 1587
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1561 · 8 fightsPre-fight Elo1647 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Martin SanoMatthew Semelsberger
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Matthew Semelsberger60%
Martin Sano 40%Elo baseline: 66%
The Combat Edge model makes Matthew Semelsberger a 60% favorite over Martin Sano in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (66%).
Matthew Semelsberger holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1608 to 1491, a 117-point edge.
Martin Sano enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Matthew Semelsberger enters on a 4-fight loss streak.
Martin Sano finishes 100% of wins inside the distance, Matthew Semelsberger 64%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.