Martin Sano vs Matthew Semelsberger
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
4-3-1Record11-8-0
WelterweightDivisionWelterweight
5'11"Height6'1"
75"Reach75"
170 lbsWeight170 lbs
Nick Diaz Academy· 1688 avg Elo · 3 ratedTeamClinch Academy
What's at stake
Matthew Semelsberger is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +11 while a loss costs more — Martin Sano carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+31→ 1519
If they lose-17→ 1471
If they win+11→ 1607
If they lose-21→ 1575
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1556 · 8 fightsPre-fight Elo1648 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Martin SanoMatthew Semelsberger
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Matthew Semelsberger63%
Martin Sano 37%Elo baseline: 65%
The Combat Edge model makes Matthew Semelsberger a 63% favorite over Martin Sano in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (65%).
Matthew Semelsberger holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1596 to 1488, a 108-point edge.
Martin Sano enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Matthew Semelsberger enters on a 4-fight loss streak.
Martin Sano finishes 100% of wins inside the distance, Matthew Semelsberger 64%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.