Combat Edge Intelligence

Masanori Kanehara vs Michael McDonald

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

29-13-5Record19-4-0
FeatherweightDivisionBantamweight
5'8"Height5'8"
40.00Reach70,0"
145 lbsWeight136 lbs
Reversal Gym Tachikawa AlphaTeamLast Stand Fight Team

What's at stake

Michael McDonald is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +10 while a loss costs more — Masanori Kanehara carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Masanori KaneharaNow 1600
If they win+22→ 1622
If they lose-10→ 1590
Michael McDonaldNow 1735
If they win+10→ 1745
If they lose-22→ 1713

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1667 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1653 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

1.88
Sig. strikes / min
2.69
50%
Strike accuracy
43%
1.63
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
2.76
63%
Strike defense
57%
1.44
Takedown avg.
1.09
50%
Takedown accuracy
67%
64%
Takedown defense
52%
0.86
Submission avg.
1.45

Trajectory

Masanori KaneharaMichael McDonald
16001650170017502017201820192020

Win method breakdown

11 (38%)
KO/TKO
10 (53%)
10 (34%)
Submission
6 (32%)
8 (28%)
Decision
3 (16%)

Combat Edge model read

Michael McDonald83%
Masanori Kanehara 17%Elo baseline: 69%

The Combat Edge model makes Michael McDonald a 83% favorite over Masanori Kanehara in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (69%).

Michael McDonald holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1735 to 1600, a 135-point edge.

Masanori Kanehara enters on a 4-fight loss streak.

Michael McDonald enters on a 2-fight win streak.

Masanori Kanehara finishes 72% of wins inside the distance, Michael McDonald 84%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.