Matěj Peňáz vs Roger Gracie
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
11-1-0Record8-2-0
MiddleweightDivisionMiddleweight
6'3"Height6'4"
83"ReachTBD
185 lbsWeight186 lbs
Reinders MMATeamEvolve MMA
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+16→ 1695
If they lose-16→ 1663
If they win+16→ 1697
If they lose-16→ 1665
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1505 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1621 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Matěj PeňázRoger Gracie
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Matěj Peňáz70%
Roger Gracie 30%Elo baseline: 50%
The Combat Edge model makes Matěj Peňáz a 70% favorite over Roger Gracie in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Roger Gracie's way (50%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1679 vs 1681), separated by just 2 points.
Matěj Peňáz enters on a 5-fight win streak.
Roger Gracie enters on a 2-fight win streak.
Matěj Peňáz finishes 91% of wins inside the distance, Roger Gracie 88%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.