Combat Edge Intelligence

Mateus Mendonça vs Nate Maness

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

11-3-0Record16-3-0
FlyweightDivisionFlyweight
5'5"Height5'10"
TBDReach72"
125 lbsWeight125 lbs
Chute Boxe Diego LimaTeamSalvation Mixed Martial Arts

What's at stake

Nate Maness is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +12 while a loss costs more — Mateus Mendonça carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Mateus MendonçaNow 1656
If they win+20→ 1676
If they lose-12→ 1644
Nate ManessNow 1736
If they win+12→ 1748
If they lose-20→ 1716

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1585 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1659 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

1.66
Sig. strikes / min
3.14
40%
Strike accuracy
50%
4.14
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
3.88
30%
Strike defense
43%
2.54
Takedown avg.
0.68
27%
Takedown accuracy
75%
56%
Takedown defense
80%
0.42
Submission avg.
0.68

Trajectory

Mateus MendonçaNate Maness
165017001750202220232024

Win method breakdown

3 (27%)
KO/TKO
6 (38%)
5 (45%)
Submission
3 (19%)
3 (27%)
Decision
7 (44%)

Combat Edge model read

Nate Maness70%
Mateus Mendonça 30%Elo baseline: 61%

The Combat Edge model makes Nate Maness a 70% favorite over Mateus Mendonça in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (61%).

Nate Maness holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1736 to 1656, a 80-point edge.

Nate Maness enters on a 2-fight win streak.

Mateus Mendonça finishes 73% of wins inside the distance, Nate Maness 56%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.