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Combat Edge Intelligence

Mateus Mendonça vs Nilson Rojas

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

Compare any two fighters →

Tale of the tape

11-3-0Record9-1-0
FlyweightDivisionFlyweight
5'5"Height5'6"
TBDReach63"
125 lbsWeight125 lbs
Chute Boxe Diego LimaTeamPitbull Martial Arts Center· 1672 avg Elo · 11 rated

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Mateus MendonçaNow 1655
If they win+16→ 1671
If they lose-16→ 1639
Nilson RojasNow 1657
If they win+16→ 1673
If they lose-16→ 1641

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1585 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1521 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.

1.66
Sig. strikes / min
Not available
40%
Strike accuracy
Not available
4.14
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
Not available
30%
Strike defense
Not available
2.54
Takedown avg.
Not available
27%
Takedown accuracy
Not available
56%
Takedown defense
Not available
0.42
Submission avg.
Not available

Trajectory

Mateus MendonçaNilson Rojas
165017002023202420252026

Win method breakdown

3 (27%)
KO/TKO
7 (78%)
5 (45%)
Submission
0 (0%)
3 (27%)
Decision
2 (22%)

Combat Edge model read

Mateus Mendonça54%
Nilson Rojas 46%Elo baseline: 50%

The Combat Edge model makes Mateus Mendonça a 54% favorite over Nilson Rojas in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Nilson Rojas's way (50%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1655 vs 1657), separated by just 2 points.

Mateus Mendonça finishes 73% of wins inside the distance, Nilson Rojas 78%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.