Mateusz Rębecki vs Sidney Outlaw
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
21-5-0Record23-6-0
LightweightDivisionLightweight
5'7"Height5'8"
66"Reach76"
155 lbsWeight155 lbs
American Top TeamTeamDante Rivera BJJ· 1664 avg Elo · 3 rated
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+12→ 1748
If they lose-12→ 1724
If they win+12→ 1747
If they lose-12→ 1723
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1690 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1646 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Mateusz RębeckiSidney Outlaw
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Sidney Outlaw67%
Mateusz Rębecki 33%Elo baseline: 50%
The Combat Edge model makes Sidney Outlaw a 67% favorite over Mateusz Rębecki in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Mateusz Rębecki's way (50%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1736 vs 1735), separated by just 1 points.
Sidney Outlaw enters on a 6-fight win streak.
Mateusz Rębecki finishes 81% of wins inside the distance, Sidney Outlaw 52%.
Sidney Outlaw carries a 10-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.