Combat Edge Intelligence

Mateusz Rębecki vs Tom Nolan

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

Compare any two fighters →
Tom Nolan
au

Tom Nolan

“Big Train”

11-1-0LightweightUFC

1726Good

Tale of the tape

20-5-0Record11-1-0
LightweightDivisionLightweight
5'7"Height6'2"
66"Reach73"
155 lbsWeight155 lbs
American Top TeamTeamTeam Compton Training Centre

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Mateusz RębeckiNow 1727
If they win+12→ 1739
If they lose-12→ 1715
Tom NolanNow 1726
If they win+16→ 1742
If they lose-16→ 1710

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1682 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1605 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

5.21
Sig. strikes / min
5.87
47%
Strike accuracy
46%
4.69
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
4.73
54%
Strike defense
48%
3.38
Takedown avg.
0.74
53%
Takedown accuracy
22%
50%
Takedown defense
71%
0.51
Submission avg.
1.86

Trajectory

Mateusz RębeckiTom Nolan
16001650170017501800202420252026

Win method breakdown

9 (45%)
KO/TKO
5 (45%)
7 (35%)
Submission
1 (9%)
4 (20%)
Decision
5 (45%)

Combat Edge model read

Tom Nolan56%
Mateusz Rębecki 44%Elo baseline: 50%

The Combat Edge model makes Tom Nolan a 56% favorite over Mateusz Rębecki in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Mateusz Rębecki's way (50%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1727 vs 1726), separated by just 1 points.

Mateusz Rębecki enters on a 3-fight loss streak.

Tom Nolan enters on a 5-fight win streak.

Mateusz Rębecki finishes 80% of wins inside the distance, Tom Nolan 55%.

Tom Nolan carries a 7-inch reach advantage.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.