Matheus Nicolau vs Matt Schnell
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
19-5-1Record17-11-0
FlyweightDivisionFlyweight
5'6"Height5'8"
66"Reach70"
125 lbsWeight135 lbs
Nova UniaoTeamFortis MMA
What's at stake
Matheus Nicolau is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +14 while a loss costs more — Matt Schnell carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+14→ 1677
If they lose-18→ 1645
If they win+14→ 1627
If they lose-10→ 1603
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1646 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1677 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Matheus NicolauMatt Schnell
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Matt Schnell56%
Matheus Nicolau 44%Elo baseline: 43%
The Combat Edge model makes Matt Schnell a 56% favorite over Matheus Nicolau in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Matheus Nicolau's way (43%).
Matheus Nicolau holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1663 to 1613, a 50-point edge.
Matheus Nicolau enters on a 3-fight loss streak.
Matt Schnell enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Matheus Nicolau finishes 53% of wins inside the distance, Matt Schnell 69%.
Matheus Nicolau and Matt Schnell share 1 common opponent: Brandon Royval.
Matt Schnell carries a 4-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.