Matheus Nicolau vs Michael Aljarouj
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
19-5-1Record13-3-0
FlyweightDivisionFlyweight
5'6"Height5'6"
66"Reach68"
125 lbsWeight125 lbs
Nova UniaoTeamOld School Academy
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+16→ 1678
If they lose-16→ 1646
If they win+16→ 1673
If they lose-16→ 1641
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1643 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1522 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Matheus NicolauMichael Aljarouj
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Michael Aljarouj52%
Matheus Nicolau 48%Elo baseline: 49%
The Combat Edge model makes Michael Aljarouj a 52% favorite over Matheus Nicolau in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Matheus Nicolau's way (49%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1662 vs 1657), separated by just 5 points.
Matheus Nicolau enters on a 3-fight loss streak.
Michael Aljarouj enters on a 6-fight win streak.
Matheus Nicolau finishes 53% of wins inside the distance, Michael Aljarouj 77%.
Michael Aljarouj carries a 2-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.