Matheus Nicolau vs Rogério Bontorin
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
19-5-1Record17-5-0
FlyweightDivisionFlyweight
5'6"Height5'5"
66"Reach67"
125 lbsWeight125 lbs
Nova UniaoTeamGile Ribeiro Team
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+16→ 1678
If they lose-16→ 1646
If they win+16→ 1679
If they lose-16→ 1647
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1643 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1632 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Matheus NicolauRogério Bontorin
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Rogério Bontorin55%
Matheus Nicolau 45%Elo baseline: 50%
The Combat Edge model makes Rogério Bontorin a 55% favorite over Matheus Nicolau in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (50%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1662 vs 1663), separated by just 1 points.
Matheus Nicolau enters on a 3-fight loss streak.
Matheus Nicolau finishes 53% of wins inside the distance, Rogério Bontorin 82%.
Matheus Nicolau and Rogério Bontorin share 2 common opponents: Brandon Royval and Matt Schnell.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.