Matheus Scheffel vs Matt Kovacs
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
17-11-0Record18-19-0
HeavyweightDivisionHeavyweight
6'2"Height6'0"
TBDReachTBD
262 lbsWeight262 lbs
CM SystemTeamCatalyst Fight House
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+12→ 1533
If they lose-12→ 1509
If they win+12→ 1526
If they lose-12→ 1502
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1611 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1495 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Matheus ScheffelMatt Kovacs
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Matheus Scheffel57%
Matt Kovacs 43%Elo baseline: 51%
The Combat Edge model makes Matheus Scheffel a 57% favorite over Matt Kovacs in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (51%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1521 vs 1514), separated by just 7 points.
Matheus Scheffel enters on a 5-fight loss streak.
Matheus Scheffel finishes 71% of wins inside the distance, Matt Kovacs 89%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.