Matheus Scheffel vs Rafael Carino
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
17-11-0Record2-1-1
HeavyweightDivisionHeavyweight
6'2"Height6'8"
TBDReachTBD
262 lbsWeight245 lbs
CM SystemTeamNova Uniao
What's at stake
Matheus Scheffel is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +11 while a loss costs more — Rafael Carino carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+11→ 1532
If they lose-13→ 1508
If they win+25→ 1525
If they lose-23→ 1477
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1611 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1511 · 3 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Matheus ScheffelRafael Carino
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Matheus Scheffel60%
Rafael Carino 40%Elo baseline: 53%
The Combat Edge model makes Matheus Scheffel a 60% favorite over Rafael Carino in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (53%).
Matheus Scheffel holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1521 to 1500, a 21-point edge.
Matheus Scheffel enters on a 5-fight loss streak.
Matheus Scheffel finishes 71% of wins inside the distance.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.