Mathias Poiron vs Rodrigo Vargas
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
9-3-0Record16-6-0
LightweightDivisionWelterweight
6'0"Height5'7"
TBDReach71"
155 lbsWeight160 lbs
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+16→ 1638
If they lose-16→ 1606
If they win+16→ 1638
If they lose-16→ 1606
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1539 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1593 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Mathias PoironRodrigo Vargas
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Mathias Poiron67%
Rodrigo Vargas 33%Elo baseline: 50%
The Combat Edge model makes Mathias Poiron a 67% favorite over Rodrigo Vargas in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (50%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1622 vs 1622), separated by just 0 points.
Rodrigo Vargas enters on a 4-fight win streak.
Mathias Poiron finishes 100% of wins inside the distance, Rodrigo Vargas 88%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.