Combat Edge Intelligence

Mats Nilsson vs Omari Akhmedov

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

11-4-1Record24-8-1
MiddleweightDivisionLight Heavyweight
6'1"Height6'0"
TBDReachTBD
185 lbsWeight205 lbs
Rumble SportsTeamAmerican Top Team

What's at stake

Omari Akhmedov is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +9 while a loss costs more — Mats Nilsson carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Mats NilssonNow 1612
If they win+21→ 1633
If they lose-11→ 1601
Omari AkhmedovNow 1715
If they win+9→ 1724
If they lose-15→ 1700

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1543 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1662 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

2.99
Sig. strikes / min
2.97
39%
Strike accuracy
34%
5.62
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
2.84
64%
Strike defense
56%
3.87
Takedown avg.
2.58
83%
Takedown accuracy
46%
44%
Takedown defense
66%
2.32
Submission avg.
0.25

Trajectory

Mats NilssonOmari Akhmedov
16001650170017502013201420152016201720182019202020212022

Win method breakdown

2 (18%)
KO/TKO
8 (33%)
5 (45%)
Submission
7 (29%)
4 (36%)
Decision
9 (38%)

Combat Edge model read

Omari Akhmedov78%
Mats Nilsson 22%Elo baseline: 64%

The Combat Edge model makes Omari Akhmedov a 78% favorite over Mats Nilsson in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (64%).

Omari Akhmedov holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1715 to 1612, a 103-point edge.

Mats Nilsson enters on a 2-fight loss streak.

Mats Nilsson finishes 64% of wins inside the distance, Omari Akhmedov 63%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.