Matt Adams vs Nandor Guelmino
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
6-3-0Record11-6-1
HeavyweightDivisionHeavyweight
5'10"Height6'3"
75"ReachTBD
263 lbsWeight230 lbs
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+24→ 1584
If they lose-24→ 1536
If they win+16→ 1571
If they lose-16→ 1539
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1512 · 9 fightsPre-fight Elo1543 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Matt AdamsNandor Guelmino
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Matt Adams70%
Nandor Guelmino 30%Elo baseline: 51%
The Combat Edge model makes Matt Adams a 70% favorite over Nandor Guelmino in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (51%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1560 vs 1555), separated by just 5 points.
Nandor Guelmino enters on a 3-fight loss streak.
Matt Adams finishes 83% of wins inside the distance, Nandor Guelmino 82%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.