Combat Edge Intelligence

Matt Andersen vs Nicolaj Wagner

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

Compare any two fighters →

Tale of the tape

14-8-1Record5-4-0
HeavyweightDivisionHeavyweight
6'2"Height6'2"
TBDReach-
245 lbsWeight249 lbs
Team

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Matt AndersenNow 1522
If they win+16→ 1538
If they lose-16→ 1506
Nicolaj WagnerNow 1532
If they win+23→ 1555
If they lose-25→ 1507

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1480 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1498 · 9 fights

Tracked stat edges

TBD
Sig. strikes / min
TBD
TBD
Strike accuracy
TBD
TBD
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
TBD
TBD
Strike defense
TBD
TBD
Takedown avg.
TBD
TBD
Takedown accuracy
TBD
TBD
Takedown defense
TBD
TBD
Submission avg.
TBD

Trajectory

Matt AndersenNicolaj Wagner
150015502008200920102011201220132014201520162017201820192020202120222023202420252026

Win method breakdown

6 (46%)
KO/TKO
5 (100%)
6 (46%)
Submission
0 (0%)
1 (8%)
Decision
0 (0%)

Combat Edge model read

Nicolaj Wagner63%
Matt Andersen 37%Elo baseline: 51%

The Combat Edge model makes Nicolaj Wagner a 63% favorite over Matt Andersen in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (51%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1522 vs 1532), separated by just 10 points.

Matt Andersen enters on a 2-fight win streak.

Matt Andersen finishes 92% of wins inside the distance, Nicolaj Wagner 100%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.