Matt Arroyo vs Stephen Costello
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
3-3-0Record6-4-0
WelterweightDivisionWelterweight
6'0"Height6'1"
TBDReach-
170 lbsWeight171 lbs
Gracie Tampa SouthTeamSBG Ireland
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+24→ 1562
If they lose-24→ 1514
If they win+16→ 1554
If they lose-16→ 1522
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1503 · 6 fightsPre-fight Elo1563 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Matt ArroyoStephen Costello
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Stephen Costello64%
Matt Arroyo 36%Elo baseline: 50%
The Combat Edge model makes Stephen Costello a 64% favorite over Matt Arroyo in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Matt Arroyo's way (50%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1538 vs 1538), separated by just 0 points.
Matt Arroyo finishes 100% of wins inside the distance, Stephen Costello 67%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.