Matt Dwyer vs Randy Brown
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
11-9-0Record20-8-0
MiddleweightDivisionWelterweight
6'4"Height6'3"
44,0"Reach78"
183 lbsWeight170 lbs
Toshido Mixed Martial ArtsTeamBudokan Martial Arts Academy
What's at stake
Randy Brown is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +6 while a loss costs more — Matt Dwyer carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+24→ 1587
If they lose-8→ 1555
If they win+6→ 1748
If they lose-18→ 1724
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1598 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1728 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Matt DwyerRandy Brown
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Randy Brown92%
Matt Dwyer 8%Elo baseline: 74%
The Combat Edge model makes Randy Brown a 92% favorite over Matt Dwyer in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (74%).
Randy Brown holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1742 to 1563, a 179-point edge.
Matt Dwyer enters on a 5-fight loss streak.
Randy Brown enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Matt Dwyer finishes 82% of wins inside the distance, Randy Brown 65%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.