Combat Edge Intelligence

Matt Dwyer vs William Macario

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

11-9-0Record11-7-0
MiddleweightDivisionWelterweight
6'4"Height5'11"
44,0"ReachTBD
183 lbsWeight170 lbs
Toshido Mixed Martial ArtsTeamPejor

What's at stake

Matt Dwyer is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +11 while a loss costs more — William Macario carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Matt DwyerNow 1563
If they win+11→ 1574
If they lose-21→ 1542
William MacarioNow 1462
If they win+31→ 1493
If they lose-17→ 1445

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1598 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1626 · 8 fights

Tracked stat edges

2.57
Sig. strikes / min
4.92
34%
Strike accuracy
55%
3.24
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
3.96
55%
Strike defense
66%
0.44
Takedown avg.
1.85
10%
Takedown accuracy
45%
60%
Takedown defense
79%
0
Submission avg.
0

Trajectory

Matt DwyerWilliam Macario
1450150015501600202020212022

Win method breakdown

9 (82%)
KO/TKO
7 (64%)
0 (0%)
Submission
1 (9%)
2 (18%)
Decision
3 (27%)

Combat Edge model read

The Combat Edge model rates this a near coin-flip, splitting Matt Dwyer and William Macario within a point of even.

Matt Dwyer holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1563 to 1462, a 101-point edge.

Matt Dwyer enters on a 5-fight loss streak.

William Macario enters on a 2-fight loss streak.

Matt Dwyer finishes 82% of wins inside the distance, William Macario 73%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.