Matt Dwyer vs William Macario
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
Compare any two fighters →
Tale of the tape
11-9-0Record11-7-0
MiddleweightDivisionWelterweight
6'4"Height5'11"
44,0"ReachTBD
183 lbsWeight170 lbs
Toshido Mixed Martial ArtsTeamPejor
What's at stake
Matt Dwyer is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +11 while a loss costs more — William Macario carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+11→ 1575
If they lose-21→ 1543
If they win+31→ 1492
If they lose-17→ 1444
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1599 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1625 · 8 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Matt DwyerWilliam Macario
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
The Combat Edge model rates this a near coin-flip, splitting Matt Dwyer and William Macario within a point of even.
Matt Dwyer holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1564 to 1461, a 103-point edge.
Matt Dwyer enters on a 5-fight loss streak.
William Macario enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Matt Dwyer finishes 82% of wins inside the distance, William Macario 73%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.