Matt Foki vs Matthew O'Rourke
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
5-4-0Record0-1-0
Light HeavyweightDivisionLight Heavyweight
5'7"Height-
TBDReach-
205 lbsWeight205 lbs
Tant's GymTeamTeam Ryano Waterford
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+25→ 1483
If they lose-23→ 1435
If they win+23→ 1494
If they lose-25→ 1446
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1495 · 7 fightsPre-fight Elo1503 · 1 fights
Tracked stat edges
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Matthew O'Rourke70%
Matt Foki 30%Elo baseline: 52%
The Combat Edge model makes Matthew O'Rourke a 70% favorite over Matt Foki in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (52%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1458 vs 1471), separated by just 13 points.
Matt Foki enters on a 4-fight loss streak.
Matt Foki finishes 40% of wins inside the distance.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.