Matt Frevola vs Shane Roller
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
11-6-1Record11-7-0
LightweightDivisionLightweight
5'9"Height5'10"
71"ReachTBD
155 lbsWeight155 lbs
Gracie Tampa SouthTeamTeam Takedown
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+16→ 1653
If they lose-16→ 1621
If they win+16→ 1652
If they lose-16→ 1620
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1680 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1633 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Matt FrevolaShane Roller
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Matt Frevola53%
Shane Roller 47%Elo baseline: 50%
The Combat Edge model makes Matt Frevola a 53% favorite over Shane Roller in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (50%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1637 vs 1636), separated by just 1 points.
Matt Frevola enters on a 3-fight loss streak.
Shane Roller enters on a 2-fight win streak.
Matt Frevola finishes 64% of wins inside the distance, Shane Roller 82%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.