Matt Gawlik vs Petera Wilson
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
6-0-0Record3-2-0
HeavyweightDivisionHeavyweight
6'3"Height6'2"
-Reach-
235 lbsWeight265 lbs
Team Top NotchTeam
What's at stake
Matt Gawlik is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +16 while a loss costs more — Petera Wilson carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+16→ 1655
If they lose-32→ 1607
If they win+32→ 1550
If they lose-16→ 1502
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1490 · 6 fightsPre-fight Elo1523 · 5 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Matt GawlikPetera Wilson
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Matt Gawlik71%
Petera Wilson 29%Elo baseline: 67%
The Combat Edge model makes Matt Gawlik a 71% favorite over Petera Wilson in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (67%).
Matt Gawlik holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1639 to 1518, a 121-point edge.
Matt Gawlik enters on a 6-fight win streak.
Petera Wilson enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Matt Gawlik finishes 100% of wins inside the distance, Petera Wilson 67%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.