Matt Gawlik vs Yoshihiro Nakao
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
6-0-0Record9-3-0
HeavyweightDivisionHeavyweight
6'3"Height5'11"
-ReachTBD
235 lbsWeight215 lbs
Team Top NotchTeamTeam Tackler
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+24→ 1664
If they lose-24→ 1616
If they win+16→ 1658
If they lose-16→ 1626
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1494 · 6 fightsPre-fight Elo1608 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Matt GawlikYoshihiro Nakao
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Yoshihiro Nakao53%
Matt Gawlik 47%Elo baseline: 50%
The Combat Edge model makes Yoshihiro Nakao a 53% favorite over Matt Gawlik in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (50%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1640 vs 1642), separated by just 2 points.
Matt Gawlik enters on a 6-fight win streak.
Matt Gawlik finishes 100% of wins inside the distance, Yoshihiro Nakao 67%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.